AI selloff and political backlash put Anthropic's IPO timing and $1.5 trillion valuation in doubt, Reuters and WSJ report

Reuters reported on November 6 that potential buyers doubt Anthropic can hold its roadshow during the week of November 9 and still list in November as planned. Pricing had been expected the week after. A day earlier, The Wall Street Journal reported that major investors are skeptical that the offering can reach a $1.5 trillion valuation. Anthropic declined to comment on the investors' doubts, according to Reuters.

What investors are saying

Reuters' account rests on four people familiar with the discussions. According to these people, some investors see $1.5 trillion as the top of what they would accept and want a cheaper entry price. Earlier this year, investors had expected an October listing at a valuation of up to $2 trillion. Given Anthropic's history of quarterly losses and its large commitments to partners in the AI buildout, the sources say the company may need to offer a bigger discount to secure orders. If pressure on AI-related assets continues, the listing could slip to the end of the year or later.

Investors also want to see Anthropic's October revenue, a figure left blank in its amended S-1 registration statement, to judge whether growth has picked up again after a recent slowdown. The WSJ report, as summarised by Seeking Alpha, makes a similar point and adds that one investor put a fair valuation closer to $1 trillion. Ground News reproduces the article's subheadline, which says prospective buyers are discussing a range of $1.2 trillion to $1.3 trillion. Seeking Alpha adds that Anthropic could raise about $80 billion rather than the up to $100 billion some had expected.

The backlash behind the selloff

Reuters ties the shift in sentiment to a broader turn against AI. Ballot measures restricting data center development passed in many states, and AI stocks sold off for two days after the US midterm elections. Nebius, IREN and CoreWeave have each lost about half their market value over the past month. Truist Advisory Services, cited by Reuters, calculates that tech has trailed the S&P 500 by 10.7% over the past month, the steepest one-month gap since May 2002.

What remains uncertain

None of the sources say that Anthropic has changed its timetable or valuation target, and the company has not commented. Some analysts quoted by Reuters expect strong retail demand to support the deal, as it did for SpaceX's listing. Much will depend on whether Anthropic publishes the October figure and on how markets move before the roadshow.