UK's £400bn AI growth figure came from a Google-commissioned report; the government's own central estimate is £120bn

For roughly two years, UK ministers and public bodies said artificial intelligence could add £400bn to the British economy. A written parliamentary answer from AI minister Kanishka Narayan, reported by WIRED on November 4, has now set out where that number came from and how it compares with the government's own projections.

What the minister said

Responding to MP Ben Spencer, who asked what evidence supported the £400bn figure cited around the government's AI action plan, Narayan said it was taken from a publicly available 2023 report produced by the consultancy Public First and commissioned by Google. Public First now operates as PF Global.

The government's own modelling is considerably lower. It estimates that AI adoption and investment in data could add between £55bn and £140bn by 2030, with a central estimate of £120bn. Narayan described these numbers as "hugely uncertain". According to Resultsense, a methodology note linked from the answers applies adoption curves to OECD productivity estimates; the note does not state £120bn itself, and its worked medium scenario comes to £117bn. Spencer has since asked how the central figure was derived.

Why it matters

WIRED says this is the first time the government has placed the two figures side by side or acknowledged that the larger one came from a Google-commissioned study. It reports that ministers had the lower estimate from at least November 2025, yet Skills England was still publishing the £400bn figure about four months later. Resultsense adds that Lord Holmes of Richmond says he asked about the figure's origins in January 2025 without receiving an answer.

The answer did not withdraw the £400bn number or describe it as wrong. Google, which has commercial interests in AI adoption, paid for the study; that does not by itself make the analysis flawed, but it is relevant context for a figure used to support public policy.

The consultancy's view

PF Global's head of economics, Jonathan Dupont, told WIRED that the gap partly reflects the government's slower adoption assumptions, and that the firm's 2023 model assumed faster uptake than has happened. The firm says its current central estimate for 2030 is much closer to the government's. WIRED says it asked the Cabinet Office and Google for comment. How the £120bn central figure was calculated remains the open question, since the published method note does not show it directly.